Obama’s Kashmir Thesis
Obamaâs Kashmir thesis
Impact on Indo-Pak peace process
By
M.M.Khajooria
The President elect of USA , Barack Obama  has reiterated his resolve to redeploy American troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. âwell, I have said during the campaign, and I have stuck to this commitment  that as soon as I take office, I will call in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, my national security apparatus, and we will start executing a plan that draws down troops.â he told CBS 60 minutes In his maiden wide ranging interview after his historic win. Obama found this switch over necessary âParticularly in the light of the problems we are having in Afghanistan, which has continued to worsen , we have to shore up those effortsâ he argued.  Any focus  on Afghanistan necessarily involved Pakistan  to whose army the USA hasâ out soured â the  fight against the AL Queda. Most of the difficulties in Afghanistan were directly linked to  the  operations by the Taliban and  Al Queda   elements  safely ensconced in bases lying within the Pakistan territory. The problem was further complicated by the trust deficit between the Pakistan army, especially the Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Coalition Forces operating in Afghanistan as well as the Afghan government. The US also wanted the Pakistan army to concentrate on supporting the war effort in Afghanistan., which ,they (Pakistan) argued was possible only after the threat to Pakistan from India eased. Thus the âKashmir disputeâ  was injected  into the Afghan situation through a somewhat  convoluted logic.           Â
In an interview broadcast on MSNBC, Obama indicated that his administration would encourage India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir dispute so that Islamabad can better cooperate with the United States. âweâre going to have to do with respect to Afghanistan is actually deal with Pakistan. And weâve got to work with the newly elected government there (Pakistan) in a coherent way that says, terrorism is now a threat to you. Extremism is a threat to you. We should â try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they (Pakistan) can stay focused not on India, but on the situation with those militantsâ. .His line to Pakistan was, “look at India and what they are doing, why do you want to keep on being bogged down with this particularly  at a time where the biggest threat now is coming from the Afghan border? I think there is a moment where potentially we could get their attention. It won’t be easy, but it’s importantâ.  To Indians, he essentially made âthe argument that you guys are on the brink of being an economic superpower, why do you want to keep on messing with this.â
The Obama thesis may sound attractive as part of  election rhetoric- quick on impact and easy on the uninitiated minds, but once in oval office, he would find that the issue was much too tangled and highly emotive to admit of any quick fix solution. The  internal political dynamics of the two nuclear powers , the baggage of history and rise of Pan-Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan intensely committed to promote terrorism worldwide in general and India with special emphasis on Jammu & Kashmir in particular further aggravated the situation .There was no way the American administration under Obama or any one else   could  ride rough shod over the perceived interests of the two countries locked in delicate parleys to work out peace and accommodation..
 The Obama formulation located the source of Afghan turmoil in Pakistan . It linked the inability of that country to fully discharge her obligations as US partner in the war against the Taliban and Al Queda  to its strained relations with India on the âdispute over Kashmirâ . In essence it was argued that if the âcore issue of Kashmirâ were to be settled to the satisfaction on Pakistan, that country would go whole hog to fight the Taliban and Al Queda which would   serve the American strategic and security interests packaged as peace in South Asia and the world.
The Obama thesis represents gross over simplification of a complex issue. It is also flawed on  facts and ignores ground realities in Pakistan. To begin with, which Pakistan was he talking about? was he talking about the people of Pakistan? If so , he should be aware that according to credible surveys , America is the most hated country in Pakistan . The net result was that even those politicians who would otherwise happily  toe the American line were both inhibited and handicapped in openly acting pro-American not with standing the fact that the US military and economic aid that sustained that country And what of  Pakistan Taliban whose reach extends from Karakorums to Karachi already locked in grim battle with  US coalition forces? . Or does he have the powerful Pak army and its more powerful ISI in mind? That an influential segment of Pakistan military leadership still held the firm view that the Taliban were the ultimate winners was no secret. They, therefore felt that to  the âcontinue working relations with them(Taliban)â and provide them help where possible was in the interest of Pakistan .The cosy relations between the ISI and the Mujahideen (read Talban in the current context) have survived the vicissitudes of time and were as stout as ever. These interestingly date back to the days of Soviet invasion on Afghanistan and Najibullah regime when Pak ISI, the CIA and the Mujahideen (predecessors of the Taliban) collaborated most intimately and at an unprecedented scale.    The Americans were fully aware of the ISI-Taliban tie up and therefore do not take them into confidence before launching attacks on Talban/AlQueda hideouts within Pakistan territories. . âThey are not sharing any information with us. These are all totally unilateral actions.â Inter-Services Public Relations chief Maj-Gen Athar Abbas complained. Another technique perfected during US-Pak joint operations in Afghanistan was to divert part of the armament and funds to Kashmir   with the CIA looking the other way. This experience seems be  coming handy nowâ  âThe United Statesâ says Nicholas D. Kristofâ has squandered more than $10 million on Pakistan since 9/11, and Pakistan intelligence agencies seem to have rerouted some of that to Talban extremistsâ The escalating    militancy was souring US-Pakistan relations and bringing to fore the conflict of interest between the two partners in the war against international terror. The CIA chief , it may be recalled had sometime back gone to the extent of  identifying FATA as the epicentre of Al Queda terror network that targets the USA. Obamaâs  running mate senator Joe Biden   devoted part of his acceptance speech to highlight the fight against extremists in Fata.â The resurgence of fundamentalism in Afghanistan and Pakistan (is) the real central front against terrorism,â he warned. âThe fact is Al Qaeda and the Taliban â the people who actually attacked us on 9/11 â have regrouped in those mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan and are plotting new attacksâ â  According to Kristof âIf the government wants to stop the Talibanization   of Pakistan, the greatest need is not the money but the political will to stop sheltering Taliban leaders in the city of Quetta..â  And political will you can not buy or sell. It is rooted in identification of the national interest of a  particular country.
President Zardari has repeatedly stated that he apprehends no trouble from India. He had even spoken ofâ No first use of Nuclear weaponâ by his county. How far his word can be trusted and how much clout he actually wielded in the power structure was another matter. In any case , as far as relations with India were concerned India, the Pakistan military establishmentâ with its outdated and insecurity oriented  mindset called the shots. Was this mindset undergoing any change?. An eminent Pakistan analyst argued that , Gen. Mushaaraf was a âcompany man â He made all the moves on Kashmir and the Indo-Pak peace process with   the  approval of the entire military leadership. This was also borne out by the proceedings in the US Congressional committee. In response to a question from Congressman Ackerman , chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Sub Committee on   South Asia, Mitchell Shivers Principal Assistant Secretary for Defence was  reported to have stated that “There is no doubt that still within the military rank and file in the army and let us say the leadership they still turn as their greatest threat âthe eastern border- the threat from India.â But , he added âWe think this is changing and it is changing rapidly.â Obama and his administration will do well to take serious note of this because  if true this could provide  the space and source for âfacilitationâ of resolution of Indo-Pak problem.
 Washington had so far wisely avoided to âprescribeâ a roadmap for resolution of Kashmir imbroglio in view of  the fractious and explosive nature of the problem in a volatile and gravely unstable South Asian politico- security environment .In any case  the prospects for settling the Kashmir dispute through direct US intervention were rated rather  slim.  Washington under Obama should therefore tread with extreme circumspection and caution .Given the excellent Indo-US equation based on commonality of interests and high strategic and economic stakes , no one would advise Obama to make the mistake of trying to   arm twist  India. Here was an issue  on which three wars and one mini Kargil war had been fought with Pakistan.  The unanimous resolution of Indian parliament calling  for vacation of Pakistanâs illegal occupation of the Jammu & Kashmir territory was alive and binding. The emergence of both countries as nuclear powers  introduced yet an other worrisome  dimension . As for as Pakistan was concerned the  shaky state of its polity and economy and strong and widespread Anti-US sentiment prevailing therein  set a limit beyond which   Pakistan government could not be pushed. No government in that country could  afford to be seen as meekly kowtowing American vested interests.
 The only conflict-resolution option though somewhat  remotely viable was the phased conversion of the existing Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir into an internationally recognized Indo-Pakistani border. The hiccups and bumps in the Indo-Pak peace parleys  not withstanding, the process appeared to be headed in that general direction and was so far holding course. Obama and his administration could  and should in the interests of USA  itself and peace and stability in South Asia help and gently nudge the parties to move forward towards that goal.  This process required  to be quickly supplemented by a much needed and overdue change in the Pakistan military doctrine that treats India as enemy number one. The US influence   could usefully and effectively work here  . If this were to happen and  democracy and rule of law firmed up in Pakistan , India, Pakistan and USA  might be in a position to collaborate to bring  the Afghan situation can under control .Any hasty, rash and ham handed intervention by USA, on the other hand would only further complicate the matters and place the precariously balanced Indo-Pak peace process in serious jeopardy.  In the bargain the, forces of peace and amity in South Asia would be weakened and terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir as well in Pakistan revitalized .This revitalization of the three link   AlQueda operational structure – the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan Taliban and Lashkar-e-Toiba/ Jaish _e-Mohammad active in J&K.- would create a situation totally in contradiction to that envisaged by the Obama thesis.
The horrendous and unprecedented amphibious  assault on Mumbai beginning 26/11 by elements from Pakistan (Laskar-e-Toiba etc) , the ensuing blood bath and waves of terror had created a  most sensitive and highly explosive situation. The obvious inability as well as unconcealed unwillingness of a the severely fractured polity in totally destabilised  Pakistan had  upset equations and  severely restricted options post Mumbai terror attack . While this in no way diluted the validity of the above analysis, the Indo-Pak relations were  headed for an all time low  with all options open for  an outraged and terribly angry India. The US needed to address the highly explosive situation  top most priority.. Rest can  and should wait.
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